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Overview

Case Study: International Consumer Brand
Conducted research, analysis, and consulting for a US-based Institutional Investor. Global in-store reads analyzed every 4 weeks led to an early negative assessment which was then confirmed with in-depth interviews of wholesale account buyers.
Moved from highly positive on the stock to highly negative in space of four weeks. Alerted client a few days prior to the earnings call where company then surprised and confirmed our negative read by lowering forward guidance.
Stock immediately fell by more than one-fifth the day after the call and continued its movement downward throughout the following weeks.
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Thesis
Case Study: International Consumer Brand
A company’s products had exploded on the scene in the United States starting in 2001. Demand seemed to move ever upward, and the core question the investor had was:
When will demand in the US reach its natural plateau as a result of saturation?
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Approach

Case Study: International Consumer Brand
Field work conducted across the United States and the United Kingdom.
In–store set spanned direct–to–consumer full price and outlet retail stores as well as key department store wholesale accounts.
Longitudinal design with in–store visits conducted every four weeks at the same locations each time.
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Data

Case Study: International Consumer Brand
Stores broken down into pricing, merchandise assortment proportions, promotional details, traffic and trial levels. Reports showing state-of-the brand delivered monthly, with immediate reassessment from “Green” in one month to “Red” the following month based on proprietary data collection methodology and resulting analysis.
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Results

Case Study: International Consumer Brand
In 2012 after spotting critical on–floor markdowns, turned the assessment on the company from highly positive to highly negative. Company earnings call days later confirmed negative assessment with negative forward guidance.
Stock fell sharply the next day losing one-fifth of its value overnight and continued to fall throughout the next weeks and months.
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